Impact Confidence Scoring Guide

THUNDERBOARD 6.0.202 · deterministic score bands, source categories, and operator guidance.

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Decision Support Notice

Impact Confidence is a THUNDERBOARD decision-support indicator. It does not replace National Weather Service warnings, radar analysis, field reports, local EOC procedures, or agency policy.

Score Bands

Score	Level	Meaning
90-100%	Critical	High-confidence, high-consequence warning context. Treat as urgent EOC decision-support context.
75-89%	High	Strong warning/radar/context signal. Prioritize situational awareness and readiness actions.
60-74%	Elevated	Meaningful warning or upstream influence signal. Monitor closely and validate with official products.
40-59%	Guarded	Early or partial signal. Useful for heads-up monitoring but not a primary trigger by itself.
0-39%	Low	No active primary warning or weak supporting signal for the selected county.

Scoring Sources

Category	Signal	How to read it
hazard	Primary NWS warning type	Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warning are the core deterministic drivers.
polygon	Polygon / county match	County/polygon context helps determine whether the primary warning is directly relevant.
time	Warning age / expiration	Newer and currently valid warnings carry more operational relevance.
tags	NWS hazard tags	Wind, hail, tornado, observed/radar-indicated, and damage threat language can adjust confidence.
upstream	Upstream warning influence	Nearby upstream primary warnings can create capped heads-up confidence even before a local warning exists.
radar_trend	Radar trend context	Optional radar trend factors may add context when available.
spc_outlook	SPC outlook context	SPC outlook context can support but does not override live warning state.

Operator Rules

Use Impact Confidence as a briefing and prioritization aid.
Use official NWS warning text as the authoritative warning product.
Use local policy, EOC procedures, radar review, field reports, and communications plans for operational decisions.
A Low score does not mean no weather risk exists; it means THUNDERBOARD did not identify a strong primary-warning confidence signal for the selected county.
A High or Critical score should prompt validation against NWS products and local procedures, not automatic action by itself.